Performance Prediction

Race Time Predictor

Use your known race result to predict your performance at any distance. Combines three proven formulas for accurate estimates.

Race Time Predictor

Known Race Result

Hours

Minutes

Seconds

Target Distance

Predicted Time

Low confidence

Average of 3 formulas

3h 53:06

Pace: 5:31 /km · 8:53 /mile

Riegel

3h 50:01

Cameron

3h 59:45

VO2max

3h 49:34

DistancePredicted TimePace /kmPace /mile
5K24:064:497:45
10K50:005:008:03
Half Marathon1h 50:555:158:28
Marathon3h 53:065:318:53
50K4h 39:305:358:60

About these predictions:

  • Riegel: Best for similar distances (±25%)
  • Cameron: More accurate for longer distances
  • VO2max: Based on aerobic capacity estimation
  • Predictions are estimates and actual performance depends on many factors

How to predict your race time

Race time prediction uses mathematical formulas to estimate how fast you'll run at a different distance based on a known race result. If you've run a 10K, you can predict your marathon time. The most common formula is the Riegel formula, which accounts for the fact that maintaining the same pace over longer distances becomes progressively harder due to fatigue.

This tool uses three different formulas: Riegel (best for similar distances), Cameron (better for longer distances), and VO2max-based prediction. Use the average as your baseline estimate.